Could NBA trade deadline be a bust? Why it might depend on Giannis

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis and Ja Morant are the three biggest potential targets ahead of the 2026 NBA trading deadline.

All three are injured, and all three will be sidelined well beyond the Feb. 5 deadline. This complicates the overall market.

Each player is expected to make an eventual full return to health, though each – to varying degrees – has his own complicated injury history. The problem arises in the risk potential suitors may be feeling to trade for players who have combined to miss 63 games this season, as well as the real assets required to pry those stars away from their teams.

This all points to a potential drag in the trading market, possibly making this a sleepy deadline – especially when compared to last season’s that saw stars like Luka Dončić, Jimmy Butler, De’Aaron Fox and Brandon Ingram each shipped to new teams.

Complicating this further is that the entire market is in somewhat of a holding pattern, awaiting to see what happens with Antetokounmpo, the two-time Most Valuable Player and biggest chip on the board.

Antetokounmpo technically has not requested a trade, and the Milwaukee Bucks have been reluctant to make their franchise player available in a deal. But Antetokounmpo, 31, has repeatedly voiced his frustrations – he most recently characterized the team’s play as “selfish” – and has maintained that he wants to compete for championships.

The Bucks are 18-26 and 10th in the Eastern Conference. This is quickly becoming a lost season, and the latest Antetokounmpo injury likely precludes them from being buyers ahead of the deadline. So the Bucks may reluctantly understand that a fresh start is best for everyone, particularly because Antetokounmpo has one more year on his deal with a player option for 2027-28 that he can decline.

Essentially, if Milwaukee senses that Antetokounmpo is considering walking during the 2027 offseason, the Bucks may want to at least recoup some assets for a rebuild. In that case, a trade makes perfect sense.

Yet, potential suitors will have far more financial flexibility and draft capital to deploy in an Antetokounmpo trade over the offseason, so the Bucks are probably best served to exercise patience.

Either way, we’re nearly 50 games into the season, Antetokounmpo is dealing with an injury that has nagged him, and he’s expected to be reevaluated in a month – at the earliest. That puts potential contenders who would be interested in him in a tricky spot.

Adding Antetokounmpo is a franchise-altering move that also impacts the day-to-day operation of a team. Regardless of who the suitors may be, a player like Antetokounmpo completely alters the way offenses are run, so there would be an adjustment period.

Not only are the mechanics of trading a player like Antetokounmpo during the season complicated (with a third team possibly needing to be involved), it also means these suitors would need to undergo a massive pivot, which is a risk this late in the year.

So, as the rest of the league awaits for resolution with Antetokounmpo, this could create a further lag in the trading market.

The Mavericks have also indicated they’re not necessarily in a rush to move Davis, who was the headliner returned in the infamous Dončić deal. Davis turns 33 in mid-March and is a constant injury concern, though he can be effective when he’s on the floor.

Dallas, though, is hanging around the play-in picture in the West and is also without Kyrie Irving. Eventually, the Mavericks may feel that they can make a late push for the playoffs.

And the Grizzlies have to contend with a depressed market as Morant’s value is as low as it has been throughout his career.

Granted, this could all change very quickly. If the Bucks decide they want to prioritize a head start on a rebuild, they could look to move Antetokounmpo sooner. If the Mavericks feel they can get good value for Davis, maybe they scoop up younger players more aligned with their timeline. Maybe the Grizzlies decide their relationship with Morant has run its course.

This trading deadline will certainly be active with role players like Jonathan Kuminga, Michael Porter Jr., Coby White and Domantas Sabonis likely to find new teams.

Don’t be surprised, however, if all this smoke about Antetokounmpo, Davis and Morant turns out to be just that.